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ConvApparel: Measuring and bridging the realism gap in user simulators

ConvApparel addresses the “realism gap” between LLM-based user simulators and genuine human behavior. It combines over 4,000 human-AI shopping conversations with a controlled Good-versus-Bad agent setup and evaluates simulators through statistical alignment, human-likeness, and counterfactual adaptation. The framework aims to determine whether simulators genuinely model human reactions or merely reproduce patterns from their training data. ## Why User Simulator Realism Matters - Conversational agents often fail during long, multi-turn interactions by forgetting constraints or producing irrelevant responses. - Human testing provides valuable feedback but is expensive, slow, and difficult to scale. - LLM-based user simulators offer a scalable alternative, but often behave unlike real users: - They may be excessively verbose. - They can lack consistent personas or coherent preferences. - They may possess unrealistic, encyclopedic knowledge. - They are often unusually patient and assistant-like. - Training systems only against unrealistic simulators may cause them to fail with real users. ## The Need for Counterfactual Validation - A simulator should respond plausibly not only to situations represented in its training data, but also to novel assistant behaviors. - The authors introduce **counterfactual validation**: training a simulator on helpful-agent conversations, then testing it against an unexpectedly frustrating agent. - A realistic simulator should recognize poor assistance and show increased frustration, reduced satisfaction, and behavior changes similar to those of real users. - This tests whether the simulator has learned general human behavior rather than memorized training patterns. ## The ConvApparel Dataset - ConvApparel contains more than 4,000 human-AI multi-turn conversations and nearly 15,000 total turns in the apparel-shopping domain. - Participants were unknowingly assigned to one of two recommendation agents: - **Good agent:** Helpful, efficient, and supported by robust search. - **Bad agent:** Intentionally confusing, tangential, and based on degraded search retrieval. - The dataset captures reactions ranging from satisfaction to significant annoyance. - Participants provided turn-by-turn retrospective annotations, including: - Satisfaction - Frustration - Likelihood of making a purchase ## Three-Part Evaluation Framework ### Population-Level Statistical Alignment - Simulated conversations are compared with human conversations using aggregate measures such as: - Conversation length - Words per turn - Dialogue acts, including rejecting recommendations - This reveals whether simulators reproduce broad behavioral distributions. ### Human-Likeness Score - An automated discriminator is trained on human and simulated conversations. - It produces a probability indicating how human-like a conversation appears. - The score is intended to detect subtle stylistic differences that simple statistics may miss. ### Counterfactual Validation - A simulator is trained only on conversations with the Good agent. - It then interacts with the unseen Bad agent. - High-fidelity simulation should produce a human-like increase in frustration and decline in satisfaction when the assistant behaves poorly. ## Simulator Configurations The experiments compare three Gemini-based user simulators: - **Prompted simulator:** Uses high-level behavioral instructions without additional task-specific training. - **In-context learning (ICL) simulator:** Retrieves semantically similar human conversations from ConvApparel and supplies them as examples at each turn. - **Supervised fine-tuning (SFT) simulator:** Trains a Gemini 2.5 Flash model directly on the dataset. The post presents ConvApparel as a structured way to measure simulator realism and test whether simulated users can adapt to assistant behavior outside their training distribution. Its central recommendation is to evaluate user simulators not only by surface-level similarity, but also by how naturally they react to unexpected failures.

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Improving the academic workflow: Introducing two AI agents for better figures and peer review

AI is being positioned as an active participant in academic research, not merely a tool for drafting text. The post introduces PaperVizAgent, which creates publication-ready figures, and ScholarPeer, which produces literature-grounded peer reviews. Both use multi-agent workflows and iterative verification to reduce researchers’ administrative burden while improving visual quality and review rigor. ## PaperVizAgent: Generating Publication-Ready Figures - PaperVizAgent converts manuscript text and a detailed figure caption into academic illustrations. - It uses five specialized agents: - **Retriever:** Finds relevant literature and reference figures. - **Planner:** Organizes the technical content. - **Stylist:** Develops appropriate visual and aesthetic guidelines. - **Visualizer:** Produces images or executable Python code for statistical plots. - **Critic:** Checks the result against the source text and requests revisions. - The critic-driven refinement loop is designed to ensure that figures are both technically faithful and visually clear. - Inputs typically include: - The manuscript’s method or technical sections. - A communicative-intent description explaining what the figure should convey. ### Evaluation Results - PaperVizAgent was compared with direct prompting, few-shot prompting, GPT-Image-1.5, Nano-Banana-Pro, and Paper2Any. - Figures were scored from 0 to 100 on: - Faithfulness - Conciseness - Readability - Aesthetics - It achieved an overall score of **60.2**, exceeding the human baseline of **50.0** and outperforming the evaluated automated systems. - Its strongest results were in conciseness and aesthetics, while its statistical plots reached human-competitive quality. ## ScholarPeer: Automating Rigorous Peer Review - ScholarPeer is a search-enabled, context-aware multi-agent system designed to emulate the workflow of a senior academic reviewer. - Rather than treating review as simple text generation, it combines literature retrieval, adversarial checking, and technical verification. - Its main components include: - A **sub-domain historian** that builds a current domain narrative from literature. - A **baseline scout** that searches for overlooked datasets, methods, and comparisons. - A **multi-aspect Q&A engine** that tests novelty and technical claims. - A **review generator** that follows conference-specific review guidelines. - The resulting review includes a summary, strengths, weaknesses, and questions for the authors. ### Evaluation Results - ScholarPeer was evaluated on public datasets against fine-tuned models and other agentic reviewing systems. - Its active web-search and verification process produced highly critical reviews grounded in existing research. - Side-by-side evaluations showed strong win rates against competing automated reviewers. - The system also narrowed the gap between AI-generated reviews and human reviews in terms of realism, diversity, and alignment with expert judgments. ## Implications for Academic Research - The two agents address separate bottlenecks in the publication process: - PaperVizAgent improves technical communication through better figures. - ScholarPeer helps scale peer review amid growing submission volumes and reviewer fatigue. - Their multi-agent designs suggest that specialized agents, coordinated through retrieval and iterative critique, may be more effective than a single general-purpose language model. - The systems are intended to support researchers rather than replace scientific judgment. Researchers could use PaperVizAgent for early figure prototyping and ScholarPeer for preliminary, literature-informed critique, while retaining human oversight for final scientific and editorial decisions.

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google3 min readCurated summary

Evaluating alignment of behavioral dispositions in LLMs

The post introduces a framework for evaluating whether LLM behavior aligns with human behavioral tendencies in realistic social and workplace situations. Instead of relying on self-report questionnaires, it converts validated psychological traits into situational judgment tests and compares model responses with judgments from human annotators. Across 25 models, larger systems align better when humans strongly agree, but models remain overconfident and often fail to represent legitimate human disagreement. ## From Psychological Self-Reports to Situational Tests - The researchers adapt statements from established instruments measuring traits such as empathy, emotion regulation, and assertiveness. - Because LLM self-reports can vary with prompt wording and may not predict real behavior, the statements are transformed into realistic user-assistant scenarios. - Each scenario presents two possible actions: - One expressing or supporting a behavioral trait. - One opposing or suppressing it. - Three annotators review each generated test to ensure the scenario and actions accurately represent the intended trait. - Models respond naturally, and an LLM judge maps each response to one of the two actions. - Human preferences are collected from 10 annotators per scenario, drawn from a pool of 550 participants. ## Measuring Directional Alignment - Directional alignment measures whether a model gives greater probability to the action favored by the human majority. - The analysis focuses on scenarios with strong human consensus: - Unanimous agreement: 10 of 10 annotators. - Very high agreement: 9 or 10. - High agreement: 8 or 9. - Smaller models, particularly those under 25 billion parameters, often perform near chance and struggle to distinguish when a trait should be expressed or restrained. - Larger models over 120 billion parameters and frontier closed-weight models perform substantially better. - These models approach near-perfect alignment when human agreement is unanimous, but performance generally plateaus in the low-to-mid 80% range when consensus is weaker. - Qualitative deviations included: - Encouraging emotional openness in professional situations where humans preferred composure. - Favoring harmony in disputes instead of standing up for one’s position. - Recommending immediate action in time-sensitive situations without sufficient logistical verification. ## Representing Human Disagreement - The study also evaluates distributional alignment: whether model confidence reflects the diversity of human opinions. - When human annotators disagree, a well-aligned model should distribute its probability more evenly between the available actions. - The results show systematic model overconfidence across all 25 evaluated systems. - Models tend to favor one action too strongly even when human preferences are divided, indicating that they often fail to preserve pluralism in human judgment. ## Broader Implications - The framework distinguishes two types of alignment gaps: - Directional gaps, where models choose differently from a clear human majority. - Distributional gaps, where models fail to reflect uncertainty or disagreement among people. - The findings suggest that scale improves behavioral alignment but does not fully solve nuanced social judgment. - Evaluating behavior in realistic scenarios may reveal limitations that conventional personality questionnaires or direct model self-reports miss. Future alignment work should assess not only whether models choose the human-majority response, but also whether their confidence and range of responses appropriately reflect genuine variation in human perspectives.

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google3 min readCurated summary

Building better AI benchmarks: How many raters are enough?

Human disagreement makes AI benchmarks difficult to reproduce, yet evaluations often use only one to five raters per item and reduce their responses to a majority vote. The study introduces an `(N, K)` framework—balancing the number of items (`N`) against raters per item (`K`)—to determine how annotation budgets should be allocated. It concludes that the best balance depends on the evaluation goal: broad sampling for majority accuracy, but deeper rating for capturing nuanced human opinions. ## The Breadth-versus-Depth Trade-off - The “forest” strategy rates many items with few raters per item. - The “tree” strategy rates fewer items with many raters per item. - Historically, AI benchmarks have favored the forest approach, typically using one to five raters per example. - This approach can miss both the overall distribution of opinions and meaningful disagreement among raters. ## Simulating Annotation Budgets - The researchers built a simulator using real-world subjective datasets, including toxicity, hate speech, safety, offensiveness, and job-related tweet classification. - They varied: - **Scale (`N`)**: 100 to 50,000 total items. - **Crowd (`K`)**: 1 to 500 raters per item. - Thousands of configurations were tested for statistical reliability, including whether model comparisons reached significance at `p < 0.05`. - The simulator also examined messy conditions such as highly imbalanced categories and tasks with multiple labels. - The simulator has been released as open source. ## Why Three to Five Raters Are Often Insufficient - Low-rater evaluations may fail to represent natural human disagreement. - They provide too little depth to reveal nuanced opinions and too little breadth to establish a reliable overall picture. - In many settings, more than 10 raters per item are needed to produce results that reflect the variation in human judgments. - More ratings per item can make model comparisons more statistically reliable. ## The Evaluation Metric Determines the Optimal Strategy - **Majority-vote accuracy** - If the goal is to determine whether a model agrees with the majority of people, rating more items is generally more effective. - This favors the forest strategy. - **Opinion range and nuance** - If the evaluation must distinguish between responses such as “yes,” “maybe,” and “no,” more raters per item are essential. - This favors the tree strategy because only repeated ratings reveal the full distribution of human opinions. - There is no universally optimal number of items or raters; the correct allocation depends on what the benchmark is intended to measure. ## Reproducibility Without Unlimited Budgets - An appropriately chosen item-to-rater ratio can produce highly reproducible results with roughly 1,000 total annotations in some settings. - Spending more money does not guarantee reliability if the budget is distributed poorly. - The study’s framework is intended to help benchmark designers choose the allocation that best fits their metric and data characteristics. ## Moving Beyond a Single Ground Truth - Many AI evaluations assume that every example has one objectively correct label. - This assumption becomes increasingly problematic for subjective tasks involving toxicity, harmful intent, ethics, safety, or social interaction. - Preserving disagreement instead of collapsing it into a plurality label can make benchmarks more representative of real human judgment. - The authors argue that understanding disagreement is as important as measuring consensus. Benchmark designers should first decide whether they need majority accuracy or a detailed picture of human opinion, then allocate ratings accordingly. In subjective evaluations, using substantially more than five raters per item may be necessary for reliable and reproducible conclusions.

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google3 min readCurated summary

Safeguarding cryptocurrency by disclosing quantum vulnerabilities responsibly

Google Quantum AI argues that future cryptographically relevant quantum computers could break the elliptic-curve cryptography securing many cryptocurrencies sooner and with fewer resources than previously estimated. Its research presents circuits for attacking 256-bit elliptic-curve discrete logarithms using fewer than 1,200–1,450 logical qubits and 70–90 million Toffoli gates. Google urges cryptocurrency developers to migrate to post-quantum cryptography while disclosing the findings through verifiable zero-knowledge proofs rather than publishing exploitable attack details. ## Updated Quantum Resource Estimates - The relevant threat is Shor’s algorithm running on a large, fault-tolerant quantum computer. - Google developed two circuits for solving ECDLP-256: - Fewer than 1,200 logical qubits and 90 million Toffoli gates. - Fewer than 1,450 logical qubits and 70 million Toffoli gates. - Under assumptions aligned with some superconducting quantum hardware, the attack could require: - Fewer than 500,000 physical qubits. - Only a few minutes of computation. - This represents an estimated 20-fold reduction in physical-qubit requirements compared with earlier estimates. - Google connects the findings to its proposed 2029 timeline for beginning migration to post-quantum cryptography. ## Protecting Cryptocurrencies with PQC - Most blockchains and cryptocurrencies rely on elliptic-curve cryptography for essential security functions. - Post-quantum cryptography offers a practical, established direction for protecting blockchains against quantum attacks. - Migration will take significant time, creating urgency for networks to begin transitioning now. - Short- and long-term recommendations include: - Avoid exposing vulnerable wallet addresses. - Do not reuse vulnerable addresses. - Consider policy responses for abandoned or inaccessible coins. - The post points to existing post-quantum blockchain projects and experimental deployments as evidence that migration is feasible. ## Responsible Disclosure Through Zero-Knowledge Proofs - Public vulnerability disclosure must balance two risks: - Revealing enough information for defenders to respond. - Giving attackers a usable blueprint. - Cryptocurrency disclosure is especially sensitive because fear and unsupported claims can damage public confidence even before a technical attack is possible. - Google says it reduced this risk by clarifying which blockchain components are not vulnerable and emphasizing existing post-quantum progress. - It also published a zero-knowledge proof that allows independent parties to verify the resource estimates without accessing the underlying quantum circuits. - Google encourages other research groups to adopt similarly responsible disclosure practices. ## Outlook for the Cryptocurrency Ecosystem - Google hopes the work will encourage coordinated discussion among quantum researchers, security experts, cryptocurrency developers, and policymakers. - The broader goal is to preserve confidence in blockchain systems while giving them enough time to complete a post-quantum transition. Cryptocurrency projects should begin planning and testing PQC migration now, while avoiding address exposure and reuse in the interim. At the same time, quantum researchers should disclose attack estimates in ways that support verification and defense without unnecessarily enabling exploitation.

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Vibe Coding XR: Accelerating AI + XR prototyping with XR Blocks and Gemini

Vibe Coding XR combines Gemini’s natural-language coding capabilities with the open-source XR Blocks framework to rapidly create interactive, physics-aware WebXR applications. Users can describe an experience—such as a dandelion, physics lab, or educational visualization—and receive a working Android XR prototype in under 60 seconds. The workflow supports both desktop simulation and deployment to Android XR headsets, making spatial prototyping faster and more accessible. ## Bridging AI Prototyping and XR - Traditional XR development requires fragmented perception systems, game engines, and low-level sensor integrations. - Vibe-coded prototypes let developers quickly evaluate 3D interfaces, spatial interactions, and visualizations before investing in full production. - The workflow is designed for both experienced developers and creators without prior XR expertise. - Gemini translates natural-language prompts into functional XR applications with scene setup, perception, interaction, and physics logic. ## The Vibe Coding XR Workflow - Users open the XR Blocks Gem in Chrome on an Android XR headset or desktop. - They provide a prompt by typing or using voice, such as “Create a beautiful dandelion.” - Gemini plans and implements the experience using XR Blocks examples and templates. - On Android XR, users can enter the experience with a pinch gesture and interact naturally—for example, pinching to blow away an animated dandelion. - Applications can be published through a shareable public link. - Desktop Chrome provides a simulated-reality environment for testing before deployment, while Android XR enables advanced features such as hand tracking, depth sensing, and physics. ## Technical Foundation - XR Blocks is built on WebXR, three.js, and LiteRT.js. - Its engine coordinates: - Environmental perception - XR interaction - Spatial computing - AI integration - Gemini receives a specialized system prompt containing: - XR design guidelines for room-scale environments, spatial layout, scale, and interaction distances - Package-management rules and recommended styles - Curated source code, templates, and working samples - Grounding Gemini in valid XR Blocks APIs reduces hallucinated code and encourages consistent implementation patterns. ## Educational and Interactive Applications - **Math tutor:** Visualizes Euler’s theorem using tetrahedra, cubes, and octahedra, with pinch-based highlighting of vertices, edges, and faces. - **Physics lab:** Lets users pick up and place labeled weights on a balance scale to learn about equilibrium. - **Immersive chemistry:** Simulates methane, ethylene, and acetylene combustion with educational cards and volumetric effects, offering a safer mixed-reality alternative to physical experiments. - **Schrödinger’s cat:** Uses pinch and proximity interactions to demonstrate superposition, revealing alive and dead versions of a cat before collapsing the state into one outcome. - **XR sports:** Generates interactive experiences such as hand-based volleyball, including textured balls, environmental collision, and adjustable launch behavior. ## Practical Value - Creators can test spatial ideas in minutes rather than building complete XR pipelines first. - The same prototype can be evaluated on desktop and then experienced with body and hand interactions on Android XR. - The approach is especially useful for education, interaction design, scientific visualization, and early-stage product exploration. Vibe Coding XR is best viewed as a rapid experimentation layer rather than a replacement for production XR engineering. By combining Gemini’s reasoning with XR Blocks’ specialized runtime and templates, it significantly lowers the barrier to creating and validating intelligent spatial experiences.

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google3 min readCurated summary

TurboQuant: Redefining AI efficiency with extreme compression

TurboQuant is a quantization framework designed to dramatically reduce memory use in large language models and vector search without sacrificing accuracy. It combines PolarQuant’s efficient vector compression with QJL’s one-bit residual correction to eliminate the overhead found in traditional quantization. Experiments show that it can compress KV caches to 3 bits, reduce memory by at least 6×, and accelerate attention-logit computation by up to 8×. ## The Memory Challenge in AI - High-dimensional vectors power language understanding, image features, vector search, and model attention. - These vectors consume substantial memory, particularly in the key-value (KV) cache used to store frequently accessed attention information. - Traditional vector quantization reduces vector size but often requires full-precision scaling or normalization constants for each block. - This metadata can add one or two bits per value, undermining the benefits of compression. ## TurboQuant’s Two-Stage Approach - TurboQuant first applies a random rotation to simplify the geometry of the data. - PolarQuant then compresses the transformed vectors using a standard quantizer, dedicating most bits to the vector’s primary information. - A remaining single bit is used by QJL to encode residual error. - QJL removes bias from the initial compression, improving the accuracy of attention-score calculations. - The approach requires no model training or fine-tuning. ## QJL: One-Bit Error Correction - QJL builds on the Johnson-Lindenstrauss Transform, which preserves important distances and relationships in high-dimensional data. - It represents each transformed value using only its sign: +1 or −1. - A specialized estimator combines low-precision stored data with a high-precision query. - This preserves accurate attention scores while introducing effectively zero memory overhead. ## PolarQuant: Compression Without Metadata Overhead - PolarQuant converts vectors from Cartesian coordinates into polar coordinates. - Instead of separately storing coordinate values, it represents vectors through: - A radius, capturing magnitude or signal strength - Angles, capturing direction and semantic structure - Because angular values follow a predictable, concentrated distribution, PolarQuant avoids expensive per-block normalization constants. - It recursively groups coordinate pairs and transforms their radii until the vector becomes one final radius plus a collection of angles. - This produces a compact representation with fixed, predictable boundaries. ## Experimental Results - The methods were tested on LongBench, Needle In A Haystack, ZeroSCROLLS, RULER, and L-Eval using Gemma and Mistral models. - TurboQuant achieved strong dot-product distortion and recall results while minimizing KV-cache memory. - On needle-in-a-haystack tasks, TurboQuant maintained perfect downstream performance while reducing KV memory by at least 6×. - PolarQuant was also nearly lossless on these tasks. - TurboQuant compressed KV caches to 3 bits without accuracy degradation. - Quantized models ran faster than the original uncompressed models. - On H100 GPUs, 4-bit TurboQuant delivered up to an 8× speedup for attention-logit computation compared with 32-bit keys. - The method has negligible runtime overhead and is relatively simple to implement. TurboQuant is presented as a practical way to make long-context LLMs and large-scale vector search more memory-efficient. Its combination of metadata-free PolarQuant compression and one-bit QJL correction is especially promising for deployments constrained by KV-cache capacity, latency, or GPU memory.

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Mapping the modern world: How S2Vec learns the language of our cities

S2Vec is a self-supervised framework that converts buildings, roads, businesses, and infrastructure into general-purpose geospatial embeddings. By rasterizing these features into S2 Geometry cells and training a masked autoencoder to reconstruct missing areas, it learns the spatial “character” of neighborhoods without manually labeled data. It performs especially well for socioeconomic predictions in geographically unseen regions, while environmental tasks benefit from combining it with satellite imagery. ## Turning Geospatial Data into Images - Geospatial data is multimodal and unevenly distributed: urban blocks may contain hundreds of features, while rural areas contain few. - S2Vec uses hierarchical S2 Geometry cells to divide the Earth into regions at different resolutions. - It counts feature types within each cell—such as buildings, parks, roads, and businesses—and organizes them into multilayered raster images. - This makes complex geographic information compatible with computer vision methods developed for ordinary images. ## Learning with Masked Autoencoding - S2Vec masks portions of the rasterized map and trains a model to reconstruct the missing features from surrounding context. - Repeated training across global locations teaches relationships among urban elements, such as the likelihood of shops near residential buildings and transit stations. - The resulting embeddings are compact numerical representations of each location’s built environment. - Because training is self-supervised, S2Vec does not require worldwide labels for income, air quality, population, or other metrics. - The model can identify similar neighborhood types without being explicitly told concepts such as “financial district” or “suburban residential area.” ## Evaluation and Socioeconomic Performance - S2Vec was compared with models including SATCLIP, GEOCLIP, RS-MaMMUT, Hex2vec, and GeoVeX. - Tests covered population density, median income, carbon emissions, tree cover, and elevation. - Models were evaluated using mean squared error and both: - Interpolation, using random train/test splits - Extrapolation, predicting conditions in geographically unseen regions - S2Vec was generally the strongest individual model for zero-shot socioeconomic prediction, including population density and median income. - It performed competitively with established image-based approaches and exceeded GEOCLIP in the reported comparisons. ## Benefits of Multimodal Fusion - Combining S2Vec with satellite-image embeddings generally produced better results than either modality alone. - Built-environment data captures structures and infrastructure, while satellite imagery adds information about vegetation, terrain, and transportation patterns. - Fusion was particularly valuable for environmental prediction tasks. ## Limitations on Environmental Tasks - Built-environment features alone do not fully explain factors such as tree cover and elevation. - S2Vec was competitive for carbon-emissions prediction but weaker on some environmental metrics. - Satellite imagery embeddings improved performance by supplying information unavailable from counts of buildings, roads, and businesses. S2Vec points toward scalable geographic foundation models that replace task-specific feature engineering with reusable representations. In practice, it is most effective when its built-environment embeddings are combined with complementary imagery, especially for environmental analysis.

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google3 min readCurated summary

Improving breast cancer screening workflows with machine learning

Google Research’s AIMS studies evaluated whether machine learning could support the UK’s mammography double-reading workflow. Across five NHS screening services, the AI system improved cancer detection sensitivity without reducing specificity, detected some cancers missed by human readers, and processed cases far faster. The studies also showed that safe deployment requires local calibration, monitoring for distribution shifts, and evaluation of how clinicians interact with AI results. ## NHS Screening Challenges - The UK NHS uses two human readers for each mammogram, with arbitration when their assessments require review. - A projected shortage of clinical radiologists—currently around 30% and expected to reach 40% by 2028—threatens the sustainability of this model. - AI could help increase detection while reducing pressure on radiology services. ## Study 1: Standalone Performance - The retrospective evaluation included mammograms from approximately 116,000 women screened across five NHS services. - The services represented three different double-reading and arbitration workflows. - AI thresholds were calibrated separately for each service to account for local populations and procedures. - Performance was measured against the original first reader using a 39-month follow-up period, including interval and subsequent-round cancers. - Researchers also assessed: - Comparisons with second and consensus readers - Lesion-level localization - Performance across demographic groups ## Study 1: Results - Cancer detection increased from 7.54 to 9.33 cases per 1,000 women. - The AI system achieved significantly higher sensitivity than the original first reader without compromising specificity. - It detected 25% of interval cancers missed by the original double-reading process. - Performance was especially strong for invasive cancers and women attending their first screening. - The study found no notable systematic disparities by age, ethnicity, breast density, or socioeconomic status. ## Prospective Technical Deployment - The system was deployed non-interventionally at 12 sites across two London screening services. - It processed 9,266 cases over roughly two months per service. - Mammograms were pseudonymized and sent to a secure Google Cloud-based system. - Median AI processing time was 17.7 minutes, compared with more than two days for the first human read. - The deployment detected a distribution shift between historical training data and current clinical data. - Researchers adjusted operating points during deployment to maintain safe and appropriate recall rates for local workflows. ## Study 2: AI in the Double-Reading Workflow - The second study examined how human readers performed when using AI as part of arbitration, rather than evaluating AI in isolation. - Twenty-two readers reviewed thousands of cases using real screening-service rules. - Two workflows were compared: - **Standard care:** decisions from the historical first and second human readers - **AI-enabled care:** the historical first-reader decision paired with the AI decision - This design aimed to assess the practical effects of replacing the second human read with an AI reader. The findings support AI as a potential second reader in breast cancer screening, but broader prospective clinical validation is still needed. Successful adoption should include phased deployment, local calibration, continuous monitoring, and careful evaluation of human-AI decision-making.

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google3 min readCurated summary

Google Research at The Check Up: from healthcare innovation to real-world care settings

Google Research argues that AI is entering a new phase in healthcare: moving beyond isolated tools toward personalized care, clinical collaboration, public-health planning, and scientific discovery. The post highlights research partnerships, open models, and real-world deployments designed to make healthcare more accurate, accessible, and proactive. Google emphasizes that these advances must be developed responsibly through clinical validation, peer review, and collaboration with healthcare institutions. ## AI for Personalized Healthcare - A Fitbit collaboration studied how AI could support preventative care across the United States. - The research found that a Personal Health Agent (PHA) modeled on a collaborative health team could provide more effective long-term support than single-purpose fitness or tracking apps. - The PHA combines: - Data analysis - Medical and domain expertise - Health coaching - Large multimodal models can transform wearable data into personalized guidance about sleep, fitness, and overall health. ## AI as a Clinical Collaborator - Google’s breast cancer research with Imperial College London and the UK’s NHS used diverse datasets and expert-validated ground truth data. - The experimental system identified 25% of “interval cancers”—cancers missed during screening and later detected after symptoms appeared. - Integrated into clinical workflows, the system could reduce radiologists’ workload while maintaining safe detection performance. - Google’s diabetic retinopathy screening model has been deployed through partnerships with medical institutions in India, Thailand, and Australia. - It has supported more than one million screenings. - Patients can receive results in roughly two minutes. - AMIE, a multi-agent medical AI system, can reason across medical histories, laboratory results, and medical images to identify overlooked patterns. - Google is testing AMIE with Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center to assist with pre-visit history-taking and flag urgent symptoms. - An IRB-approved national study with Included Health will evaluate AI-supported telehealth care. ## Open Models for Healthcare Developers - Google’s Health AI Developer Foundations (HAI-DEF) provides free open-weight models and open-source tools for building healthcare applications. - MedGemma supports: - Medical text and image interpretation - High-dimensional 3D imaging - Medical-specific speech recognition - The All India Institute of Medical Sciences is using MedGemma for outpatient triage and dermatology screening. - Singapore’s Ministry of Health is adapting the model for locally relevant primary- and specialty-care applications. - The MedGemma Impact Challenge received more than 850 submissions aimed at turning AI research into practical, human-centered healthcare tools. ## AI for Public Health - Google Earth AI combines geospatial models and datasets to study connections between environmental conditions, population behavior, and health outcomes. - Researchers at Mount Sinai and Boston Children’s Hospital/Harvard used Google data and surveys to estimate childhood MMR vaccination coverage at ZIP-code resolution. - The resulting “super-resolution” maps identified pockets of under-vaccination that corresponded with recent measles outbreaks. - Such analysis could help public-health officials target outreach and prevention efforts more effectively. ## AI for Biomedical Discovery - Co-Scientist and Gemini Deep Think are being used to generate scientific hypotheses and support research across fields including single-cell analysis, public health, and neuroscience. - Google is also exploring evolutionary coding agents that run scientific-computing experiments in parallel. - DeepSomatic, a genomic analysis tool, is designed to improve the detection of cancer-related genetic mutations across multiple cancer types. Google’s broader recommendation is to treat AI as a validated collaborator and infrastructure layer rather than a replacement for clinicians or researchers. Continued clinical testing, expert oversight, transparent publication, and open developer access will be essential to translating these systems into safe, practical benefits.

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Testing LLMs on superconductivity research questions

LLMs may help physicists navigate complex research, but their reliability depends heavily on the quality and curation of their sources. In a high-temperature superconductivity study, systems grounded in expert-selected literature—especially NotebookLM and a custom retrieval-augmented generation system—outperformed general web-access models. The results suggest that trustworthy scientific AI requires balanced reasoning, strong evidence, and carefully controlled reference collections. ## Evaluating LLMs on Superconductivity - Researchers from Google Research and Cornell University tested whether LLMs could answer expert-level questions in condensed matter physics. - The study focused on cuprate high-temperature superconductors, whose underlying mechanism remains unresolved despite decades of research. - Understanding superconductivity in these materials could help scientists discover compounds that work at higher temperatures. - The field contains thousands of experimental and theoretical papers and competing explanations, making it difficult for researchers—especially newcomers—to establish a balanced view. ## Study Design and Sources - Six systems were evaluated: - GPT-4o - Perplexity - Claude 3.5 - Gemini Advanced Pro 1.5 - Google NotebookLM - A custom retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) system - Four models had broad web access, including 765 open-access experimental papers and 1,553 theoretical papers. - NotebookLM and the custom RAG system used a curated database: - Twelve superconductivity experts selected 15 review articles. - Those reviews contained approximately 3,300 references. - A final collection of 1,726 experimental papers and reviews was assembled. - Experts created 67 difficult questions, including questions about doping levels and evidence for quantum criticality in cuprates. ## Evaluation Criteria Experts used masked reviews and scored responses from 0 to 2 on: - Balance between competing scientific perspectives - Comprehensiveness and factual depth - Conciseness and clarity - Evidence and links to sources - Relevance of supplied images - Qualitative comments ## Results - NotebookLM achieved the strongest overall performance. - The custom RAG system ranked second overall, showing the value of retrieval from the same expert-curated sources. - NotebookLM, Gemini, and the custom RAG system performed best at presenting balanced and comprehensive answers. - NotebookLM provided the strongest evidence and citations but was less concise than the other systems. - Image quality was generally weaker; the custom RAG system performed best among the models that regularly supplied images. - All systems showed areas needing improvement, particularly when addressing nuanced, unresolved research questions. ## Practical Implication For scientific research, LLMs should be paired with expert-curated, quality-controlled literature rather than relying solely on unrestricted web searches. Such systems can serve as research tutors or thought partners, but their answers still require expert verification, especially in fields with competing theories and rapidly evolving evidence.

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google3 min readCurated summary

Protecting cities with AI-driven flash flood forecasting

Google Research is expanding Flood Hub with urban flash flood forecasts that can provide up to 24 hours’ warning. The system addresses the lack of historical flood observations by using Gemini to extract verified events from public news reports, creating the Groundsource dataset for model training. Its global, lower-resolution approach aims to extend useful warnings to regions that lack expensive sensors and forecasting infrastructure, particularly in the Global South. ## The Need for Earlier Flash Flood Warnings - Flash floods cause roughly 85% of flood-related deaths worldwide and kill more than 5,000 people annually. - They often develop within six hours of intense rainfall, making rapid warnings essential. - Even 12 hours of warning can reduce flood damage by about 60%. - Early warning coverage remains highly unequal: fewer than half of developing countries have access to multi-hazard warning systems. - Flood Hub previously focused mainly on slower-moving riverine floods, covering more than 2 billion people across 150 countries. ## The Data Problem: “Invisible” Floods - River flood models can rely on stream gauges that record water levels and flow. - Flash floods may occur far from gauges, especially in cities where rainfall, impermeable surfaces, drainage, and terrain interact unpredictably. - Building detailed physical simulations globally would be computationally expensive. - Historical, precisely located flash flood records are also scarce, preventing conventional supervised machine learning. - Google’s Groundsource method uses Gemini to analyze public news reports, verify flood locations and times, and assemble a historical flash flood dataset. ## Scaling from Local Systems to Global Coverage - Local flash flood systems can be highly accurate using rain sensors, radar, water-level monitors, and flow measurements. - These systems are expensive to deploy and require location-specific calibration and engineering expertise. - Broader systems such as WMO’s FFGS, ERIC, and the U.S. NWS warning system depend on high-resolution maps, radar forecasts, and skilled hydrologists. - Those resources are often unavailable in the Global South. - Google’s model instead uses globally available products, including NASA IMERG, NOAA CPC, ECMWF’s IFS HRES forecasts, and Google DeepMind’s medium-range weather model. - Forecasts currently operate at a 20-by-20-kilometer resolution, constrained by the resolution of global data sources. ## The Urban Flash Flood Model - The model estimates whether a flash flood is likely in a given area during the next 24 hours. - It uses a recurrent neural network with a long short-term memory (LSTM) component to process meteorological time series. - Inputs also include static geographic and human-environment factors: - Urbanization density - Topography - Soil absorption rates - The initial rollout targets urban regions, where news coverage is denser and most of the world’s population lives. - It currently predicts impacts in areas with population densities above 100 people per square kilometer. ## Evaluation and Reported Performance - Precision was measured against the Groundsource dataset, but raw precision likely understates actual performance because some genuine floods are never reported. - A manual review of 100 alerts per continent found that many apparent false positives were confirmed flood events. - Recall was also evaluated against major floods recorded by the Global Disaster Awareness and Coordination System (GDACS). - Results indicate comparable precision and recall in regions such as South America and Southeast Asia and in wealthier countries with better instrumentation. The approach demonstrates how AI and unstructured public information can help provide scalable flash flood warnings where conventional monitoring infrastructure is limited. Its current urban focus and 20-kilometer resolution make it a broad early-warning tool rather than a replacement for highly localized sensor networks.

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google3 min readCurated summary

Introducing Groundsource: Turning news reports into data with Gemini

Groundsource is a Google Research methodology that uses Gemini to convert global news reports into structured historical records of natural disasters. Its first dataset contains 2.6 million flash-flood events across more than 150 countries from 2000 onward, addressing major gaps in conventional flood databases. Google reports that the system can support near-global urban flash-flood forecasts up to 24 hours in advance. ## The problem: Limited historical disaster data - Floods lack the standardized global sensor infrastructure available for hazards such as earthquakes. - Existing sources, including the Global Flood Database and Dartmouth Flood Observatory, are limited by cloud cover, satellite revisit times, and their focus on large or long-lasting floods. - GDACS contains roughly 10,000 high-impact disaster records but misses many localized and rapidly developing flash floods. - This shortage of reliable historical data makes global forecasting, model training, and validation difficult. ## How Groundsource processes news - The system analyzes news articles where flooding is the primary subject. - Google Read Aloud extracts article text in 80 languages, which is translated into English using Cloud Translation. - Gemini then applies a verification-oriented prompt to: - Distinguish actual past or ongoing floods from warnings, policy discussions, and general risk reports. - Resolve relative dates such as “last Tuesday” using the article’s publication date. - Identify precise locations, including neighborhoods and streets. - Map locations to standardized geographic polygons through Google Maps Platform. ## Accuracy and scale - Manual evaluation found: - 60% of events were accurate in both timing and location. - 82% were sufficiently accurate for practical analysis, such as identifying the correct administrative district or event day. - The resulting dataset contains 2.6 million flood events, greatly exceeding traditional monitoring archives. - Between 2020 and 2026, Groundsource captured 85%–100% of severe flood events listed by GDACS while also recording smaller local incidents. - Coverage is densest in recent years, particularly from 2020 to 2025, reflecting the growth of digitized news. ## Forecasting and future applications - Groundsource data has enabled near-global urban flash-flood forecasts up to 24 hours ahead. - These forecasts are being integrated into Google Flood Hub. - Google plans to improve rural coverage and incorporate additional data sources. - The same approach could help build historical datasets for droughts, landslides, avalanches, and other hazards with limited ground-truth records. Groundsource demonstrates that news archives can serve as a large-scale source of disaster history when combined with language models, translation, and geographic verification. Its open flash-flood dataset could improve forecasting and resilience planning, though its reported accuracy levels make continued validation and refinement important.

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google3 min readCurated summary

Exploring the feasibility of conversational diagnostic AI in a real-world clinical study

The study evaluated Google’s conversational medical AI, AMIE, in a real-world primary care workflow rather than simulated cases. In a prospective, IRB-approved study at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, AMIE conducted supervised pre-visit history-taking with 100 patients. Results suggested that supervised deployment was feasible and conversationally safe, while AMIE’s diagnostic and management-plan quality was broadly comparable to that of primary care physicians, with physicians performing better on practicality and cost effectiveness. ## Study Design and Clinical Workflow - Patients with new, non-emergency, episodic complaints used AMIE through a secure web link before an in-person or telehealth appointment. - A physician supervised each AI-patient interaction through live video and screen-sharing. - AMIE produced a transcript and summary for the patient’s primary care physician. - Independent clinical evaluators assessed: - The quality of the AMIE conversation - AMIE’s differential diagnoses - AMIE’s management plans - Comparable outputs from physicians - The study was prospective, single-center, single-arm, pre-registered, and IRB approved. ## Participants - 100 adults completed the AMIE interaction. - 98 attended their scheduled primary care appointments. - Participants represented varied ages, racial and ethnic groups, health literacy, technology literacy, and prior chatbot experience. - Compared with all 1,452 urgent care visits during the study period, participants tended to be younger, although the sample reflected the broader population’s female and white demographic skew. ## Safety Oversight - Human supervisors could stop an interaction if they observed: - Immediate risk of harm to the patient or others - Significant emotional distress related to the AI interaction - Potential clinical harm - A patient’s explicit request to end the session - No safety stops were required across the study. - The authors interpret this as evidence that supervised AMIE interactions were conversationally safe in this setting. ## Clinical Reasoning Performance - Three independent clinical evaluators reviewed each case using blinded, randomized assessments. - AMIE and physicians showed similar overall quality for: - Differential diagnoses - Management plans - Management-plan appropriateness and safety - Physicians performed better on the practicality and cost effectiveness of management plans. - AMIE’s differential-diagnosis accuracy was reported as high, including cases where the final diagnosis was confirmed through diagnostic testing. ## Patient and Clinician Experience - The study measured trust, perceptions, and acceptance among both patients and clinicians. - Patient trust in AI increased after interacting with AMIE. - Overall findings indicated that the system was well received within the supervised pre-visit workflow. The study supports cautious, supervised testing of conversational diagnostic AI in clinical environments. It does not establish that AMIE can independently replace clinicians; rather, it suggests that pre-visit information gathering may be a practical early use case, provided rigorous oversight, safety protocols, and further evaluation in larger and more diverse settings.

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google3 min readCurated summary

WAXAL: A large-scale open resource for African language speech technology

WAXAL is an open speech dataset designed to address the severe lack of technology resources for African languages. Covering 27 Sub-Saharan African languages spoken by more than 100 million people, it offers 1,846 hours of transcribed speech for ASR and over 565 hours of high-quality recordings for TTS under the permissive CC-BY-4.0 license. Built with African academic and community organizations, WAXAL aims to support inclusive speech systems while preserving and expanding access to the continent’s linguistic diversity. ## The Need for African-Language Speech Data - Voice assistants and transcription tools primarily support high-resource languages. - Hundreds of millions of African speakers remain underserved, despite Sub-Saharan Africa having more than 2,000 languages. - Limited training data makes it difficult to build accurate systems for tonal, morphologically complex, and code-switching languages. - WAXAL was developed beginning in 2021 to provide openly accessible resources for research and commercial innovation. ## WAXAL-ASR: Natural, Spontaneous Speech - Contains approximately 1,846 hours of transcribed audio. - Participants described image prompts across more than 50 topics rather than reading prepared scripts. - The method captured: - Natural linguistic variation - Tonal distinctions - Spontaneous speech patterns - Code-switching - Image-based elicitation produced more realistic speech data than conventional scripted recordings. ## WAXAL-TTS: High-Quality Voice Recordings - Includes more than 565 hours of phonetically balanced, high-fidelity audio. - Community members collaborated in pairs to create scripts of 10,000–20,000 words and alternate between reading and recording. - Some participants built custom studio boxes to improve recording quality. - Audio was segmented, aligned with transcripts, and reviewed for accuracy. - The clean recordings support natural-sounding synthetic voices and conversational systems. ## Supporting Full-Duplex Conversational Systems - The ASR data represents varied, real-world speech input. - The TTS data provides high-quality material for generating clear and natural speech. - Together, the datasets can support systems that both understand and respond using African languages. ## Community-Led Development - African universities and community organizations led the data collection, with guidance from Google Research. - Makerere University contributed data for nine languages. - The University of Ghana worked on eight languages, including image-prompted ASR collection. - Digital Umuganda and Addis Ababa University supported ASR collection for regional languages. - Media Trust, Loud n Clear, and the African Institute for Mathematical Sciences Senegal led studio-quality TTS recordings. - Partners retain ownership of the data while making it openly available under CC-BY-4.0. ## Research Enabled by the Project - A community-driven impaired-speech collection cookbook produced an open Akan dataset covering conditions such as cerebral palsy and stammering. - A separate project introduced a 5,000-hour corpus for five Ghanaian languages: Akan, Ewe, Dagbani, Dagaare, and Ikposo. - Benchmarking of Whisper, XLS-R, MMS, and W2v-BERT across 13 African languages showed that scaling benefits depend on linguistic complexity and domain alignment. - A literature review cataloged 74 datasets spanning 111 African languages and emphasized the need for conversational, multi-domain data and metrics such as Character Error Rate (CER). WAXAL provides a strong foundation for building more accurate and inclusive African-language speech technologies. Researchers and developers should use the openly licensed corpus, contribute derivative work, and help extend the collection to additional languages and communities.

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